Differentials Analysis (Model Prediction) for Game Week 6

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2–3 minutes

Expected Goal Threats

These attacking options combine low ownership with strong projected goal involvement metrics.

  • Thierno Barry (Everton | FWD)
    • Ownership: 8.0% (Under 10% threshold)
    • Key Stat: Expected Goal Threat
    • FPL Context: Everton’s lead attack focal point offers significant goal probability while keeping ownership under 10%.
  • Kevin Schade (Brentford | MID)
    • Ownership: 8.6%
    • Key Stat: Expected Goal Threat
    • FPL Context: Out-of-position attacking threat in Brentford’s frontline.
  • Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth | MID)
    • Ownership: 6.6%
    • Key Stat: Expected Goal Threat
    • FPL Context: Strong set-piece involvement and creative volume provide high goal-involvement probability.
  • Leif Davis (Ipswich Town | DEF)
    • Ownership: 6.8%
    • Key Stat: Expected Goal / Assist Threat
    • FPL Context: High underlying expected assist (xA) metrics from set pieces and wide key passes.
  • Jayden Bogle (Leeds | DEF)
    • Ownership: 6.2%
    • Key Stat: Expected Goal Threat
    • FPL Context: High positioning in wide attacking transitions provides significant differential upside.
  • Tyrick Mitchell (Crystal Palace | DEF)
    • Ownership: 6.0%
    • Key Stat: Expected Goal Threat
    • FPL Context: Flank coverage with consistent box entries on wing-back rotations.
  • Charalampos Kostoulas (Brighton | FWD)
    • Ownership: 1.7%
    • Key Stat: Expected Goal Threat
    • FPL Context: Ultra-low differential option (<2% owned) with projected return upside in rotational minutes.

Save Volume & Shot-Stopping Differentials

Targeting goalkeepers projected for >6 saves, ideal for accumulating crucial save points alongside bonus point potential.

PlayerTeamPosOwnershipExpected Metric
Jordan PickfordEvertonGK9.0%> 6 Saves Expected
Caoimhín KelleherBrentfordGK6.1%> 6 Saves Expected
James TraffordLeedsGK5.4%> 6 Saves Expected

Expected Defensive Contribution (DefCon)

Players projected for high defensive work rates (tackles, interceptions, clearances, and duels) to build a solid baseline floor.

  • Bobby Thomas (Coventry City | DEF) — 8.6% Owned: Premium defensive involvement baseline across key defensive actions.
  • Thierno Barry (Everton | FWD) — 8.0% Owned: High press work-rate yields notable defensive actions for an attacking asset.
  • Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth | MID) — 6.6% Owned: Defensive contribution metric coverage combined with high creative output.
  • Vitalii Mykolenko (Everton | DEF) — 4.2% Owned: Strong tackle and clearance volume in Everton’s defensive setup.
  • Vitaly Janelt (Brentford | MID) — 2.5% Owned: Midfield anchor delivering consistent defensive action counts per 90.
  • Anan Khalaili (Crystal Palace | DEF) — 0.3% Owned: Deep differential option with high defensive work rate.

Clean Sheet Odds & Probabilities

Defensive and midfield assets offering maximum potential for 4-point clean sheet payouts.

  • Jordan Pickford (Everton | GK) — 9.0% Owned
  • Gianluigi Donnarumma (Man City | GK) — 7.8% Owned
  • Kevin Schade (Brentford | MID) — 8.6% Owned (Gets clean sheet bonus point as MID)
  • Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth | MID) — 6.6% Owned (Gets clean sheet bonus point as MID)